Tracey Regan

In early 2015 Tracey joined the EAS group from The University of Melbourne, where she was a Research Fellow associated with the ARC Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions (CEED), and the National Environmental Research Program (NERP) Environmental Decisions Hub.  Tracey’s research interests are broad and span the fields of  applied quantitative ecology, conservation biology, ecological risk assessment, and the application of decision theory to the management of threatened and invasive species, and conservation planning more broadly.  Previously Tracey held post-doctoral fellowships at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research centre in La Jolla, California, and at the University of Queensland.

Tracey’s current research focuses on two main themes.  The first deals with robust prediction and decision strategies for managing extinction risk under climate change, while the second involves the development and testing the performance of a new global standard for risk assessment of ecosystems:  This latter work supports the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, and is a major collaboration with scientists from many other institutions.  This project was awarded the prestigious 2015 Eureka Prize for ‘Research and Innovation’.

Tracey’s work in conjunction with other members of the EAS group focusses on the development of an innovative decision support system that will assist DELWP in the allocation of resources for conservation planning and management activities.

Further details of Tracey’s professional work can be found at

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Keith DA, Rodríguez JP, Brooks TM, Burgman MA, Barrow EG, Boe K, Comer PJ, Franklin J, Link J, McCarthy MA, Miller RM, Murray NJ, Nel JL, Nicholson E, Olivera-Miranda MA, Regan TJ, Rodríguez-Clark KM, Rouget M and Spalding MD (in review). Risk assessments of ecosystems are valuable conservation tools despite their uncertainties. Conservation Letters.

Rodríguez JP, Keith DA, Rodríguez-Clark KM, Murray NJ, Nicholson E, Barrow EG, Brooks TM, Regan TJ, Miller RM, Boe K, Olivera-Miranda MA, Spalding MD and Wit P. (in review). Assessing the risk posed to ecosystems by multiple threats. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

Rueda-Cediel P, Anderson KE, Regan HM, Regan TJ, and Franklin J. (in review) Tradeoffs between model choice, data quality, and data quantity when estimating population trends and extinction risk. PLoS One

Baumgartner JB, McCarthy MA, Heinz D and Regan TJ. (in review) Spatial structure in population dynamics reveals environmental drivers of population growth. Animal Conservation.

Giljohann KM, McCarthy MA, Kelly L and Regan TJ. (2014). Choice of biodiversity index drives optimal fire management decisions. Ecological Applications DOI: 10.1890/14-0257.1

Nicholson E, Regan TJ, Auld TD, Burns E, Chisholm LA, English V, Harris S, Harrison P, Kingsford RT, Leishman MR, Metcalfe DJ, Pisanu P, Watson CJ, White M, White MD, Williams DJ, Wilson B, Keith DA. (2014). Towards consistency, rigor and compatibility 1 of risk assessments for ecosystems and ecological communities across multi-jurisdictional regions. Austral Ecology DOI: 10.1111/aec.12148

Keith DA, Mahony M, Hines H, Elith J, Regan TJ, Baumgartner JB, Hunter D, Heard GW,

Mitchell NJ, Penman T, Parris KM, Tracey C, Scheele B, Simpson CC, Tingley R, West M, Akçakaya HR. (2014). Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria. Conservation Biology 28 (3), 810-819.

Guisan A, Reid Tingley R, Baumgartner JB, Naujokaitis-Lewis I, Sutcliffe PR, Tulloch AIT, Regan TJ, Lluis Brotons L, McDonald-Madden E, Mantyka-Pringle C, Martin TG, Rhodes JR, Maggini R, Setterfield SA, Elith J, Schwartz MW, Wintle BA, Broennimann O, Austin M, Ferrier S, Kearney MR, Possingham HP, Buckley YM, (2013) Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecology Letters, 16(12): 1424-1435

Keith DA, Rodríguez JP, Rodríguez-Clark KM, Nicholson E, Aapala K, Alonso A, Asmussen, M, Bachman S, Basset A, Barrow EG, Benson JS, Bishop MJ, Bonifacio R, Brooks TM, Burgman MA, Comer P, Comín FA, Essl F, Faber-Langendoen D, Fairweather PG, Holdaway RJ, Jennings M, Kingsford RT, Lester RE, MacNally R, McCarthy MA, Moat J, Oliveira-Miranda MA, Pisanu P, Poulin B, Regan TJ, Riecken U, Spalding MD, Zambrano-Martínez S. (2013). Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of Ecosystems. PLoS ONE 8(5): e62111.  doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0062111.

Regan TJ, Taylor BL, Thompson GG, Cochrane J, Ralls K, Runge MC and Merrick R. (2013). Testing decision rules for categorizing species’ extinction risk to help develop listing criteria for the US Endangered Species Act. Conservation Biology. 27(4) 821–831

Swab RM, Regan HM, Keith DA, Regan TJ, and Ooi MKJ. (2012). Niche models tell half the story: spatial context and life history traits influence species responses to global change. Journal of Biogeography, 39:1266-1277

Fordham DA, Akçakaya HR, Araújo MB, Elith J, Keith DA, Pearson R, Auld TD, Mellin C, Morgan JW, Regan TJ, Tozer M, Watts MJ, White M, Wintle BA, Yates C, and Brook BW. (2012). Plant demographic traits and landscape structure strongly affect estimates of extinction risk and range margin movement under climate change. Global Change Biology, 18:1357-1371

McCarthy MA, Garrard GE, Moore AL, Parris KM, Regan TJ and Ryan GE. (2011). The SAFE index should not be used for prioritization. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9: 486–487.

Regan HM, Keith DA, Regan TJ, Tozer MG and Tootell N. (2011). Fire management to combat disease: turning interactions between threats into conservation management. Oecologia 167(3):873-82

Wintle BA, Bekessy SA, Keith DA, Van Wilgen BW, Cabeza M, Schröder B, Carvalho SB, Falcucci A, Maiorano L, Regan TJ, Rondinini C, Boitani L, Possingham HP. (2011). Designing conservation investment strategies under climate change. Nature Climate Change 1(7): 355-359.

Regan TJ, Chades I, and Possingham, HP. (2011) Optimally managing under imperfect detection: a method for plant invasions. Journal of Applied Ecology. 48: 76-85.

Bekessy SA, Wintle BA, Gordon A, Fox JC, Chisholm R, Brown B, Regan TJ, Mooney N, Read SM, Burgman MA. (2009) Modelling human impacts on the Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle (Aquila audax fleayi). Biological Conservation. 142: 2438-2448.

Keith DA, Tozer MA, Regan TJ and Regan HM. (2007) The persistence niche: what makes it and what breaks it for two fire-prone plant species from south-eastern Australia. Australian Journal of Botany 55:273-279.

Regan TJ, McCarthy MA, Baxter PWJ, Panetta FD and Possingham HP. (2006) Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant. Ecology Letters. 9:759-766.

Regan, T.J., Burgman. M. A., McCarthy, M. A., Master, L. L., Keith, D. A., Mace, G. M. and S. J. Andelman (2005). The Consistency of Extinction Risk Classifications. Conservation Biology 19:1969-1977.

Regan TJ, Master LL, and Hammerson, GA. (2004) Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using Natureserve conservation status ranks. Acta Oecologica 26: 95-107.

Keith DA, McCarthy MA, Regan, HM, Regan TJ, Bowles C, Drill C, Craig C, Pellow B, Burgman MA, Master LL, Ruckelshaus M, Mackenzie B, Andelman SJ, and Wade PR (2004). Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction. Ecology Letters 7: 1101-1108.

O’Grady, J. J., Burgman, M. A., Keith, D. A., Master, L. L., Andelman, S. J., Brook, B. W., Hammerson, G.A., Regan, T.J. and Frankham, R. (2004) Correlations Among Extinction Risks Assessed by Different Threatened Species Categorization Systems. Conservation Biology 8: 1624-1635.

McCarthy MA, Keith DA, Tietjen J, Burgman MA, Maunder M, Master LL, Brook, BW, Mace GM, Possingham HP, Medellin R, Andelman SJ, Regan, HM, Regan TJ and Ruckelshaus M. (2004) Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement. Acta Oecologica 26: 67-74.

Taylor RJ, Regan TJ, Regan HM, Burgman M and Bonham K (2003) Impacts of plantation development, harvesting schedules and rotation lengths on the rare snail Tasmaphena lamproides in northwest Tasmania: a population viability analysis. Forest Ecology and Management 175: 455-466.

Regan TJ, Regan HM, Bonham K, Taylor RJ and Burgman MA. (2001). Modelling the impact of timber harvesting on a rare carnivorous land snail (Tasmaphena lamproides) in northwest Tasmania, Australia. Ecological Modelling 139: 253-264.

Book Chapters

Possingham HP, Franklin J, Wilson K and Regan TJ (2005) The Roles of Spatial Heterogeneity and Ecological Processes in Conservation Planning, in Lovett GM, Jones CG, Turner, MG and Weathers, KC (eds.) Ecosystem Function in Heterogeneous Landscapes. Springer-Verlag, New York

Regan TJ, and Bonham K (2004) Carnivorous land snail, Tasmaphena lamproides, in Tasmania. Pages 112-124 in HR Açkakaya, MA Burgman, O Kindvall, P Sjogren- Gulve, J Hatfield & M McCarthy (eds.), Species Conservation and Management: Case studies Oxford University Press. New York